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SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (SUPN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $174.2M (+6% YoY) with diluted EPS of $0.27, driven by strong Qelbree (+60% YoY to $74.4M) and GOCOVRI (+15% YoY to $36.9M); operating earnings improved to $21.4M versus a $(1.0)M loss in Q4 2023 .
  • Management issued FY2025 guidance for total revenues of $600–$630M, GAAP operating earnings of $(15)M to $10M, and adjusted operating earnings of $105–$130M; guidance assumes $65–$75M combined net sales from Trokendi XR and Oxtellar XR amid ongoing generic erosion .
  • Strategic catalysts: FDA approval of ONAPGO (apomorphine infusion) with U.S. launch in Q2 2025, and a Qelbree label update adding pharmacodynamic and lactation data, supporting differentiation in adult ADHD .
  • Sentiment headwind: SPN-820 (TRD) Phase 2b failed to meet its primary endpoint, triggering a >13% share decline on Feb 19, indicating heightened scrutiny of pipeline value despite commercial strength .
  • Sequentially, revenue eased to $174.2M from $175.7M in Q3 2024 as Oxtellar XR faced generics from September; Qelbree scripts reached an all-time quarterly high of ~214.6K, sustaining momentum into year-end .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Qelbree sustained robust growth with Q4 net sales of $74.4M (+60% YoY) and quarterly prescriptions of 214,613 (+25% YoY); CEO: “Our 2024 results reflect solid commercial execution… continued growth of our core products” .
  • GOCOVRI net sales rose 15% YoY to $36.9M in Q4 and 9% for FY2024, reinforcing Parkinson’s franchise synergy ahead of ONAPGO launch; management emphasized leveraging existing PD sales infrastructure .
  • Balance sheet strength: cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities reached ~$453.6M at 12/31/2024, with no debt; CFO highlighted ~$300M cash from operations over the last two years, providing M&A flexibility .

What Went Wrong

  • Legacy erosion accelerated: Oxtellar XR Q4 net sales fell 57% YoY to $13.2M following generic entry in September; guidance embeds only $65–$75M combined Trokendi+Oxtellar sales in 2025 .
  • Pipeline setback: SPN-820 (TRD) Phase 2b showed no statistical benefit on MADRS vs placebo; investor reaction was swift with shares down >13% on Feb 19 .
  • Profitability guide-down for FY2025: management expects GAAP operating earnings between $(15)M and $10M given legacy erosion and launch investments; ONAPGO contribution planned at mid-single-digit millions in 2025 .

Financial Results

Headline Financials vs Prior Quarters

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$168.3 $175.7 $174.2
Diluted EPS ($)$0.36 $0.69 $0.27
Operating Earnings ($USD Millions)$22.6 $40.9 $21.4
Adjusted Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$45.5 $67.7 $48.3

Q4 Year-over-Year (Product Net Sales)

ProductQ4 2023 ($USD Millions)Q4 2024 ($USD Millions)
Qelbree$46.4 $74.4
GOCOVRI$32.0 $36.9
Oxtellar XR$31.0 $13.2
APOKYN$18.7 $20.1
Trokendi XR$19.6 $14.8
Other (MYOBLOC, XADAGO, Osmolex ER)$8.3 $7.0
Total Net Product Sales$156.0 $166.4
Royalty, Licensing & Other$8.3 $7.8
Total Revenues$164.3 $174.2

KPIs

KPIValuePeriod
Qelbree IQVIA Prescriptions (units)214,613 Q4 2024
Qelbree IQVIA Prescriptions (units)767,791 FY 2024
Qelbree Adult Mix of Rx (%)~30–32% FY 2024
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)~$453.6 12/31/2024
Adjusted Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)$48.3 Q4 2024
Qelbree Gross-to-Net Expectation (%)~50–55% FY 2025 Outlook

Non-GAAP disclosure: Adjusted operating earnings exclude amortization of intangibles, share-based compensation, contingent consideration changes, impairment charges, and depreciation; reconciliation provided in the filing .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)FY 2024 (as of Nov 4, 2024)$630–$650 ——
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)FY 2025 (as of Feb 25, 2025)—$600–$630 Lower vs FY2024 guide amid legacy erosion and launch investments
Combined R&D + SG&A ($USD Millions)FY 2024$430–$450 ——
Combined R&D + SG&A ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$435–$460 Slightly higher vs FY2024 guide
Operating Earnings (GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2024$50–$65 ——
Operating Earnings (GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$(15) to $10 Lower vs FY2024 guide
Adjusted Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2024$150–$170 ——
Adjusted Operating Earnings (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$105–$130 Lower vs FY2024 guide
Trokendi XR + Oxtellar XR Combined Net Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$65–$75 New metric; reflects continued generic pressure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Qelbree performance & adult segmentQ2: Net sales $59.4M (+92% YoY), TRx +26%; Q3: Net sales $62.4M (+68% YoY), TRx 194K (+19%) Q4: Net sales $74.4M (+60% YoY); adult mix ~30–32%; label update differentiates MOA; gross-to-net guided ~50–55% FY25 Positive growth, improving differentiation
Parkinson’s portfolio (GOCOVRI/ONAPGO)Q3 GOCOVRI $35.6M (+8% YoY); SPN-830 resubmission with PDUFA 2/1/2025 ONAPGO FDA approved; U.S. launch Q2 2025; contribution guided mid- to high-single-digit $M in 2025 Launch catalyst; measured ramp
Legacy products erosionOngoing Trokendi XR decline; Oxtellar XR still protected pre-Sept Oxtellar XR generic enter Sept; Q4 Oxtellar –57% YoY; 2025 combined legacy sales $65–$75M Accelerating erosion
R&D execution – SPN-820Q3: Positive open-label MDD signals; Phase 2b TRD top-line expected H1’25 Phase 2b TRD did not meet endpoints; management evaluating dosing regimen hypothesis Negative update; reassessment
BD/M&A appetite & firepowerNoted strong cash and flexibility Open to $0.5–$1.5B deals if cash-flow supportive; no debt, $454M cash/securities Active, opportunistic posture

Management Commentary

  • “Our 2024 results reflect solid commercial execution across the company, including continued growth of our core products, and strong growth in operating earnings” — Jack Khattar, President & CEO .
  • “We are targeting the launch of ONAPGO in the second quarter of 2025 with a support team of experts, including a nurse education program and access support” — Jack Khattar .
  • “As of December 31, 2024, the company had approximately $454 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities… strong balance sheet with no debt” — Timothy Dec, CFO .
  • “For the full year 2025, we expect total revenues to range from $600 million to $630 million… GAAP operating earnings in the range of $10 million to an operating loss of $15 million… non-GAAP operating earnings $105 million to $130 million” — Timothy Dec .

Q&A Highlights

  • Qelbree revenue drivers and outlook: Management affirmed back-of-the-envelope Qelbree FY2025 range inference and emphasized TRx growth and high adult satisfaction (~80%) as key levers .
  • Gross-to-net expectations: Qelbree GTN to be ~50–55% for FY2025; Q1 seasonality will pressure GTN as copay assistance rises through deductibles .
  • Adult segment penetration: Adult share of Qelbree prescriptions ~30–32%, materially below market adult mix (~67%), implying runway .
  • ONAPGO launch trajectory: Expect slow build with possible early bolus from KOLs; FY2025 guidance includes mid- to high-single-digit $M contribution .
  • BD capacity: Depending on target cash generation, company open to $500M–$1.5B transactions; no debt and strong cash provide flexibility .
  • Competitive landscape: Nonstimulant entrants’ impact TBD pending data/labels; company maintains disciplined payer strategy; ONAPGO pricing said to be competitive .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable for this request due to S&P Global daily limit constraints; therefore, estimate comparison is not provided. If necessary, we can refresh and align to S&P Global consensus at a later time.
  • Given FY2025 guidance below FY2024 revenues and legacy-product erosion assumptions, sell-side models are likely to adjust lower on GAAP profitability while incorporating ONAPGO ramp and continued Qelbree share gains .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core growth intact: Qelbree and GOCOVRI continue to offset legacy erosion, with Qelbree’s expanding adult presence and label differentiation supporting sustained TRx growth .
  • Transition year ahead: FY2025 guide implies near-breakeven GAAP operating earnings as ONAPGO launch investment and generic headwinds weigh; focus shifts to execution and ramp pacing .
  • Pipeline recalibration: SPN-820’s Phase 2b miss dampens near-term R&D optionality; management exploring dosing hypotheses and remains active on BD to augment growth .
  • Cash optionality: ~$454M cash/securities and no debt provide capacity for accretive transactions, potentially smoothing earnings through legacy erosion .
  • Parkinson’s franchise expansion: ONAPGO’s approval adds a differentiated continuous apomorphine option; watch for early adopter bolus and payer dynamics .
  • Watch GTN and adult mix: GTN normalization to ~50–55% and continued adult penetration are pivotal to Qelbree revenue trajectory in 2025 .
  • Stock narrative: Near-term sentiment mixed—strong commercial performance vs. pipeline miss; catalysts include ONAPGO launch and sustained Qelbree momentum; shares fell >13% on 2/19 after SPN-820 news .